CHTR

What CHTR's Earnings Track Record Says

Over the last eight reported quarters, CHTR has beaten analyst estimates exactly half the time — four out of eight releases — while posting an average earnings surprise of just 0.4%. That is close to a coin-flip record with a near-zero central tendency, which means the headline beat-or-miss label alone has not reliably dictated short-term direction. The average 5-day move after those same eight releases was 0.5%, classified by the data as "flat." In other words, once the opening gap from the report is digested, the stock has not shown a strong惯性 drift.

The most recent four quarters reveal the volatility underneath that flat average. On 2026-07-24, CHTR reported $10.66 EPS against a $9.98 estimate, a 6.8% positive surprise. On 2026-04-24, the company delivered $9.17 versus $9.96, a -7.9% miss; the stock fell 3.06% the next day and 4.66% over the following five sessions. The prior quarter, 2026-01-30, produced $10.34 versus $9.78, a 5.7% beat, and the stock rose 3.63% the next day and 12.14% over the next five. On 2025-10-31, an $8.34 print versus $9.23 — a -9.6% surprise — coincided with a -4.98% next-day drop and a -5.98% five-day decline. The headline mean is 0.5%, but individual events have been distinctly binary.

Options-Flow Dynamics for the October 30 Report

CHTR is scheduled to report next on 2026-10-30 before the open, with the current consensus EPS estimate at $9.88. At a current price of $123.31, options expiring around the report date will typically carry a volatility premium — often called "earnings juice" — that builds into the print and then collapses once the release and any guidance are digested. Traders can use the nearest-expiration at-the-money straddle as a rough measure of the market's real expectation for the implied move. It does not point direction; it captures the magnitude that the flow is pricing.

Because the historical average five-day drift is only 0.5%, a trader can compare the straddle's cost to the stock's post-earnings realized moves. If the option premium implies a move much larger than the average 0.5% drift, the market may be demanding significant event risk compensation. Heavy open interest clustered near the $123.31 strike can also create short-dated gamma dynamics, where dealer hedging either pins or accelerates price action around expiration. At the same time, the broader 50-day EMA of $142.74 and RSI of 36.5 show the stock is below that trend level heading into the event, so options flow may reflect macro sector repositioning as well as pure earnings speculation.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined process starts by treating the 50% beat rate and 0.4% average surprise as evidence of low directional probability, not as an edge. The more useful pattern is magnitude: recent EPS surprises of 6.8%, -7.9%, 5.7%, and -9.6% have produced next-day price changes of 3.63%, -3.06%, 3.63%, and -4.98%. That suggests the market reacts to how far the result deviates from the $9–$10 estimate band, not just whether the result is a beat or miss. The size of the surprise and any forward guidance revision may therefore carry more weight than the headline label.

Traders also watch how technical condition interacts with event risk. With price at $123.31, RSI at 36.5, and the 50-day EMA at $142.74, the stock is entering the report below its medium-term trend. A high-volume post-earnings move that cleans that gap could expand; a low-volume spike might be faded back toward the recent range. Whatever the setup, risk management — defined entry, position size, and stop criteria — is the practical tool for navigating a name whose history shows flat average drift but very asymmetric individual outcomes.

For the complete institutional verdict on CHTR heading into the 2026-10-30 report, view the full CHTR earnings analysis page.